New studies by the International Labour Organization (ILO) show that heat stress in six countries is already costing jobs and productivity and is causing substantial economic losses. According to the ILO, rising heat affects not only workers’ safety and health, but also productivity, businesses and the wider economy. The organization says outdoor work and labour-intensive sectors, such as agriculture, construction, fishing and transport, face the greatest risk.
Which countries were studied?
The ILO commissioned country studies in Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka. The research was led by Andreas D. Flouris and his team at the University of Thessaly in Greece, and funded by the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Group of Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), through their joint multi-donor fund. The findings were presented on 29 October 2026 at an ILO event.
What does this mean for jobs and productivity?
According to ILO projections for 2040, under a low-emissions scenario, heat stress in Ethiopia could cost up to 1.78 million full-time jobs and cause an annual loss of gross domestic product (GDP) of around 33.3 billion dollars. For the other countries, the ILO cites: 550,000 jobs and 23.2 billion dollars in GDP losses in Ghana, 145,000 jobs and 26 billion dollars in Sri Lanka, 129,000 jobs and 10.5 billion dollars in Senegal, 21,700 jobs and 2.6 billion dollars in Lebanon, and about 2,400 jobs and 575.5 million dollars in the Maldives. Under high-emissions scenarios, losses rise further by 2060. For two countries, the ILO gives those figures: in Ethiopia, 5 to 6 million jobs and 79.4 to 310.3 billion dollars in annual GDP losses, and in the Maldives, 5,500 to 6,100 jobs and 1.6 to 1.7 billion dollars.
What measures does the ILO propose?
The ILO calls for a combination of measures: better occupational safety and health, social protection for affected workers, climate-resilient economic planning, and social dialogue between governments, employers, workers and communities. Marlene Attallah, deputy director-general of Lebanon’s Ministry of Labour, said according to ISHN that protecting workers from heat stress should not be seen as an extra burden. Alpha Dia of the Senegalese employers’ organization Conseil National du Patronat (CNP) called social dialogue “our best tool for adapting to heat stress”.
Context
The new country studies build on earlier ILO research. The 2019 report “Working on a warmer planet” calculated that heat stress could cost 2.2 percent of all working hours worldwide by 2030, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs and 2,400 billion dollars in economic damage, at 1.5 degrees of warming. South Asia and West Africa were considered the hardest-hit regions at the time, with estimated losses of around 43 million and 9 million jobs respectively. The ILO itself already called those estimates conservative at the time.
Source: New ILO Studies Reveal Growing Impact of Heat Stress on Jobs and Productivity in 6 Countries, 30 October 2026
Also researched: ILO event: Heat stress, jobs and productivity: New evidence from six countries, 29 October 2026; ILO: Working on a warmer planet: The effect of heat stress on productivity and decent work, 1 July 2019
